Tensions rise and possible agreement between Iran and US slips further away

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This appointment highlights the growing influence of the military apparatus over the negotiations. All eyes are therefore on the inflation figures due tomorrow, which will help us gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves. For the time being, the market is pricing in a 51 per cent probability of a rise to 375–400 basis points at the next meeting on 16 September (compared with 44 per cent the day before). This increase would represent the second-highest growth rate since 2021, supported by the energy and technology sectors. For 2H26, the consensus forecast expects amore moderate increase of 11.3 per cent, and 10.9 per cent for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 respectively.