How Accurate Are Startup Revenue Forecasts?

Companies in the SPAC dataset projected average annual revenue growth of 113% to 114% over the two- to three-year window. Rocket Lab realized roughly 92% of its two-year revenue projection; Spire Global realized 47% and BlackSky about 40%. Companies that fail — realized revenue near zero against projections of $50 million or more — drop out of the reporting sample entirely. Dambra, Even-Tov and Munevar, in The Accounting Review, show that among de-SPAC companies, higher revenue forecasts systematically predict worse post-merger operating performance, worse stock performance, and a higher incidence of securities litigation. The literature’s central lesson is ultimately a simple one: startup forecasts are honest where they can be checked and imaginative where they cannot.