The July report debuts a new 12-month rate and spread forecast powered by Virtual Economist, the mortgage industry’s first and only AI- and machine learning-powered forecasting tool that combines public economic data and Optimal Blue’s proprietary lock volume data to deliver real-time rate and market volume forecasts. The July forecast projects the OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate will moderate toward the mid-6% range by mid-2027. Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) for conforming 30-year loans increased 2 bps to 1.34%, moving in line with rates. * Conforming share keeps shrinking: Conforming share declined to 47% of total production, down 135 bps from June and nearly 5 percentage points from a year ago. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the OBMMI 30-year conforming rate narrowed 5 bps to 197 bps.