Though messages continue to pass via third parties, no direct negotiations are ongoing, hence the US-Iran truce process is still weak and stalled. This sequencing conflict has stopped any long-term agreement and shifted diplomatic focus toward avoiding escalation instead of reaching a full settlement. A protracted Hormuz closure would raise oil prices, raise shipping expenses, support gold as a safe haven, and pressure the Australian dollar and Asian countries via higher energy costs therefore aggravating market hazards. Though a little technical shipping agreement might come before any larger settlement, the base-case scenario predicts ongoing indirect diplomacy without a complete solution. Observers should look for any change from structured direct talks to intermediate messages as progress reports now show exploratory work instead of a verified peace process.