The latest Bloomberg data show that shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely disrupted Monday morning, even as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to a deal. Yet global supply-chain stress remains near its highest level since the pandemic, and any normalization could take months, even if shipping traffic resumes. The average reading declined .3 standard deviation from June while remaining 1.35 standard deviations above February, or pre-US-Iran war, levels. The indicator most directly capturing the supply shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). The longer disruptions persist through the Hormuz chokepoint, the greater the knock-on effects across global supply chains, from higher energy and freight costs to depleted inventories, longer delivery times, and renewed inflationary pressure, are all ongoing concerns.