That distinction is keeping oil prices today above $80 a barrel and gasoline prices near $4 a gallon in the United States. The organization attributed the elevated price environment in part to crude oil prices remaining around $80 and continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz. The agency projected that increased global supply would reduce crude and gasoline prices, forecasting U.S. gasoline prices at about $3.60 a gallon during the second half of 2026. FAQ: Iran, Hormuz, oil prices and the U.S. economyIs the Strait of Hormuz open now? The recent market response demonstrates how quickly crude prices move when traders change their assessment of the probability of a diplomatic settlement.