The bull case targets $379 while the bear scenario barely reaches $314, with China revenue and gross margin compression as the primary risks. Apple dropped 7% since Q3 earnings while the broader market climbed, making the $308 entry attractive for long-term accumulation. The stock has given back 7.47% since Q3 earnings at $333, while the S&P 500 moved higher, creating one of the widest recent dislocations between Apple and the broader market this year. Services now clears roughly $30 billion a quarter at a 76.7% gross margin. The Q3 gross margin got a roughly 2 percentage-point boost from tariff refunds and about $0.11 of EPS that will not repeat.