The biggest drag is expected to come from people struggling to work in extreme heat. Triodos estimates lost labor productivity alone could shave around 0.6 percent off EU GDP, while agricultural output could fall by between 3 and 7 percent. “At first sight this might seem modest, but it is exactly the expected economic growth for the EU this year,” said the bank of the overall €180 billion blow. POLITICO estimated at least 14,000 excess deaths across the six hardest-hit European countries during the record-breaking heat wave from mid-June to early July. Triodos warned against treating this summer as a freak event, saying extreme heat “might become structural” as the planet warms.