The more telling variable for price is the internal Iranian power struggle rather than anything coming out of Washington. If the Pezeshkian camp gains ground and a Strait of Hormuz deal is eventually signed, the path is toward softer prices and a lower geopolitical risk premium. Trump is choosing to wait Iran out economically rather than pull the trigger again, even as Tehran raises the price of reopening the strait and its own leadership splits over what to do next. Trump framed the standoff as a waiting game. Asked about the standoff, Trump likened it to a long running contest that will eventually resolve in Washington's favour.