Reduced tanker traffic through the strait and Saturday's tanker strike add a live supply disruption on top of the political standoff. The Houthi blockade on Saudi Red Sea ports is a genuine confounding factor, opening a second front that could squeeze Saudi export flexibility just as Hormuz remains constrained, reinforcing upside price risk rather than offsetting it. For AUD, the balance tips slightly more defensive than in our prior note given the added Red Sea risk, though a Hormuz breakthrough would still be the more powerful driver either way. Adding a further complication, Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen have a parallel blockade against Saudi ports in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia's only other major maritime export route. The Houthis said they struck a Saudi oil facility on the Red Sea coast on Sunday, and separate strikes on the port city of Mokha killed three civilians and eight military personnel and wounded 32 people.