But if the standoff hardens further, that whole chain reverses, energy prices firmer for longer, more persistent inflation pressure, and a harder case for a Fed hold. For now this reads as the more optimistic end of the Hormuz outcome spectrum rather than the base case implied by the latest tanker strike. ---Goldman's Varadhan is betting the Fed holds, oil drops well below 70 dollars, and stocks keep grinding higher into year end. His overarching advice was to stay invested, a repeat of the view he expressed on the same podcast in the fourth quarter of last year. He said the coming jobs report and further inflation readings are the key data points he is watching next.