It's Minnesota Republicans' 20-year tug-of-war. Tafoya, who has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, leads in polling, fundraising and name recognition. A Tafoya-Flanagan matchup gives national Republicans "the greatest opportunity, in their mind," said Preya Samsundar, a Minnesota Republican political operative. Republican primary voters typically follow the endorsement of those Minnesota GOP delegates, not the choice of national GOP groups. "This doesn't seem like the right year for Republicans to be winning a senate race in Minnesota given the national environment," Kondik said.