Such an increase would extend the UK’s growth streak after GDP expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026. “The big picture is that the economy has remained resilient to the hit from the war in Iran,” he said. The services sector, which accounts for the largest share of the UK economy, strengthened in May, supported largely by professional services and scientific research and development. Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, also expects the services sector to have weakened, particularly as hospitality activity declined. He nevertheless expects economic activity to receive a boost in July from exceptionally warm weather and England’s run to the semi-finals.