The online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both allow users to wager on a wide range of natural disasters. As of August 6, 2026, neither site has any active wildfire betting opportunities. “The last thing we want is fire managers being second-guessed by prediction markets,” he said. The federal government regulates prediction markets, so individual states can’t establish rules for online betting as they do for traditional gambling. Without adding explicit language banning betting on natural disasters, the senators wrote that betting on wildfires could spread as prediction markets become more commonplace.