Several October hopefuls feature pitchers who have gotten awfully fortunate so far this season — and if they come crashing back to Earth at the wrong time, it could mean disaster. MLB's luckiest pitchers by the numbersTo get a sense of which pitchers' top-line numbers aren't exactly lining up with their performance so far, we're turning to Statcast's expected ERA (xERA), which is derived from batted-ball data. Here are the 20 luckiest pitchers in baseball this season as measured by the gap between their xERA and their actual mark. It's hard to identify anything he does particularly well right now, and the two-plus run gap between his actual ERA and expected ERA points to tougher times ahead. He also generates tons of fly balls, which is an ideal approach for someone in the pitcher's paradise otherwise known as Tropicana Field.