Republican Sen. Joni Ernst opted against a reelection bid, and it’s always easier to flip an open seat than defeat an incumbent. Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton hopes that voters’ struggles during Trump’s presidency will be enough to help him unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. But national Democrats back independent Dan Osborn, a former labor union chief, as their choice to unseat Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. Osborn lost to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 points in 2024. To be sure, Osborn has not said he’d caucus with Senate Democrats.