The US labour market debate is divided. National Bank's Jocelyn Paquet flags it in this week's Hot Chart. That might not sound dramatic until you consider the history: from 1990 through 2020, recent grads consistently enjoyed better job prospects than the workforce as a whole. The deterioration in grad job prospects started before ChatGPT launched in November 2022, so AI can't be the whole story. For the Fed, it's another data point arguing the labour market is weaker than the headline suggests.