The long rise in New Zealand house prices wasn’t just a social problem waiting to be corrected. For roughly four decades, from the early 1980s through to around 2020 or 2021, New Zealand house prices followed a remarkably predictable pattern. But it does mean that the simple story – house prices rose, therefore home ownership was destroyed – is wrong. First-home buyers may be told they’re getting relief, but the wider economy is showing the other side of the ledger. The real risk isn’t simply that house prices have fallen – markets rise and fall all the time.