But his legacy of poverty alleviation in the early 2000s may be working against him today, with public expectations around the economy high. Many Brazilians are feeling poorer, not richer, despite the economy growing, albeit slowly at 2.3% last year, according to the national statistics institute. Lula needs the boost that comes with a feel-good economic sentiment to cement his small lead over his main adversary, Flávio Bolsonaro. His government also pushed through a long-awaited tax reform, designed to make Brazil’s tax system fairer. In Brazil’s polarized political climate, anything Lula offers may make less of a difference than they would have in the past, says Dr. Arretche.