The assessment represents a shift in U.S. intelligence thinking about the risks posed by Russia while its war in Ukraine remains unresolved. Earlier analysis had concluded that Putin was unlikely to deliberately challenge NATO militarily while Russian forces remained heavily committed in Ukraine, according to the Journal. Moscow's objective could be to expose divisions among NATO members over whether and how forcefully they should respond. Intelligence officials reportedly consider such an attack unlikely, but believe the risk could increase over time if Putin fails to achieve strategic gains in Ukraine. The Defense Department and NATO's Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe didn't comment on the intelligence assessment.