Nobody in the administration is going to say that the refinery maintenance schedule is shaping this decision. Exxon produced a record amount of diesel for the quarter, and Chevron pushed more than 1 million barrels a day through its American plants. It is industrial machinery operating under heat and pressure, and machinery like that needs inspection and repair on a schedule that a war does not bend. A plant that skips this fall’s maintenance does not get to choose when it finally breaks down. Whatever Trump calls the agreement, and whatever Brent crude does on the day it’s announced, won’t tell us much.