Will Putin Test NATO? Well, for years, Western defense planners have examined scenarios in which Russia attempts to seize limited territory or temporarily sever NATO’s access to the Baltics. Such a move could force the alliance to choose between escalating militarily and risking a wider conflict, or simply accepting a limited Russian victory. A limited incursion into NATO territory would test whether Washington and its allies in Europe are prepared to respond militarily to a small incursion. The Ukraine War Is Changing Russia’s ThinkingThe intelligence warning comes as Russia faces mounting political and economic pressure caused by long-range Ukrainian strikes.