Gold and silver, after surging on geopolitical tensions early in the year, have given back those gains and sit at -7.5 percent and -19.4 percent, respectively. For multi-asset allocators, the question is straightforward: why has the same macro environment produced a divergence this sharp? In a traditional macro environment, persistent inflation would favor gold, a store of value that has historically served as a hedge against purchasing power erosion. But this is not a traditional macro environment. The threat of a potential rate hike later in 2026 drove investors out of gold and silver and back toward risk-free cash yields.