A $1.45 trillion funding gap looms over the next two fiscal years if the government sticks to its current playbook of holding auction sizes steady. The Treasury announced it will hold coupon auction sizes steady through at least the end of fiscal year 2026, a decision that aligns with unanimous recommendations from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC). Auctions of $70 billion in 5-year notes and $44 billion in 7-year notes told a similar story of tepid demand. TBAC minutes from August 5, 2026, confirmed that the committee sees current nominal coupon auction sizes as sufficient to meet projected financing needs through FY2026. The $1.45 trillion questionPrimary dealer forecasts indicate that if coupon auction sizes remain constant, the Treasury faces an anticipated funding shortfall of approximately $1.45 trillion across fiscal years 2027 and 2028.