BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) – Before the start of hurricane season on June 1, NOAA predicted a below-average season because of an anticipated El Niño. On Thursday, Aug. 6, NOAA updated its outlook just ahead of the climatological peak of the season, which occurs in mid-to-late September. An El Niño typically brings cooler-than-average water temperatures to parts of the Caribbean Sea, a key area for tropical cyclone development. Because tropical cyclones rely on warm ocean water for fuel, these cooler conditions limit the number of hurricanes and tropical storms that can form. NOAA does not expect any tropical cyclone development over the next seven days, consistent with predictions for a quiet season.