BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - Before the start of hurricane season on June 1, NOAA predicted a below-average season because of an anticipated El Niño. On Thursday, Aug. 6, NOAA updated its outlook just ahead of the climatological peak of the season, which occurs in mid-to-late September. Average activity during the Atlantic Hurricane Season (Gunnar Consol)The update comes as one of the strongest El Niños on record is expected to develop. What was already projected to be a slightly below-average season is now forecast to be well below average. August 6, 2026 NOAA Update (Gunnar Consol)An El Niño typically brings cooler-than-average water temperatures to parts of the Caribbean Sea, a key area for tropical cyclone development.