“Badenoch overtakes Farage as favourite to be next prime minister,” was the word from betting website William Hill this week. Are those statements an admission that the Conservative party hasn’t really changed at all, or evidence of a party leader offering a clarity rarely revealed in public? View image in fullscreen Pictures of Kemi Badenoch and Margaret Thatcher on sale during the Conservative party conference in Manchester, 7 October 2025. It may seem odd that the party leader and the party itself poll quite differently, but history does throw up examples of “catchup”, when people warm to the leader before that warmth extends to the party they lead. Simon Hart was Conservative government chief whip from 2022 to 2024, and is the author of Ungovernable, the political diaries of a chief whip