New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) during the team's NFL football training camp, Friday, July 31, 2026, in Foxborough, Mass. Dimers’ NFL futures model gives New England a 5.2% probability of winning the Super Bowl, the fourth-highest projection in the league. Patriots Super Bowl odds:New England’s futures price varies considerably across the major sportsbooks. Dimers Super Bowl probabilities:Dimers lists the Patriots behind only three teams in its preseason championship model. But relative to the rest of the league, the model’s position is clear, as it does not believe New England’s Super Bowl appearance was a fluke.