That leaves Labour with a projected majority of just 4.4 points but, crucially, a 72 per cent chance of holding the seat. But Burnham’s national bounce appears to be just enough, for now, to keep Labour marginally in front in two constituencies that were previously marked down as likely losses. Julie Minns’ constituency is now labelled as leaning Reform, with the party projected to get 35 per cent, Labour on 32 per cent and the Conservatives on 18.1 per cent. Josh MacAlister’s seat has Labour on 38.2 per cent and Reform on 34.9 per cent, and a projected majority of 3.2 per cent. While Reform’s vote is up on 2024 in the South Lakes, the Burnham bounce plays out here more in curbing Labour’s losses than in threatening Farron’s long‑standing dominance.