More than five months after it began, the oil supply disruption set off by the Mideast Gulf conflict has reached more than 2 billion barrels, giving the crisis a sense of semi-permanence that now must be factored into not only short-term outlooks but medium-term views as well. As a result, the decline in Hormuz flows — and thus output of crude oil, refined products and other liquids from the Middle East — will not return to prewar levels seen in February anytime soon. Using shipping data, Energy Intelligence has calculated that the Iran war has led to an average 12.9 million barrel per day reduction in seaborne supplies of crude oil, products, LPG and ethane since the start of the war on Feb. 28. Fresh hostilities by Iran-aligned Houthis threatening Saudi exports through the Red Sea are exacerbating the supply constraints. It is too early to say what impact a potential agreement between Iran and Oman to manage traffic through Hormuz might have on oil supply.