For example, under certain conditions, we found even a single successful attack on shipping in the central Indian Ocean could severely disrupt trade across the entire region. It could trigger prohibitive war-risk premiums from shipping insurers, costly route diversions, or the withdrawal of commercial traffic from the Indian Ocean altogether. But the move has prompted speculation about what it could mean for the US approach to the Indian Ocean. Simply creating disruptions at key points across the Indian Ocean could make it harder for Australia and its partner navies to maintain sea control and protect commercial shipping. India’s focus is divided between the Indian Ocean and territorial threats on its land borders, including the one with China.