Key Facts U.S. intelligence now believes Putin could test NATO with a limited attack within the next several years. Possible scenarios reportedly include cyberwarfare or a small-scale land incursion against a NATO member. The new assessment marks a shift from earlier U.S. intelligence forecasts that Putin would avoid directly provoking NATO while Russia remained engaged in its war against Ukraine. Any deliberate Russian attack on NATO territory would raise the question of Article 5, the alliance’s collective-defense provision declaring that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all. Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, for example, assessed earlier this year that Russia was unlikely to attack Estonia or another NATO country during 2026.