The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) keeps its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5%–2.5%, assuming Dubai crude at USD80–90 and USD/THB at 32.0–33.0, while UOB flags El Niño, fuel prices, and food costs as key upside risks for near-term CPI. External drivers and FX-linked risks"In its formal release, the MoC retained its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.5%–2.5%, with a 2.0% midpoint. The accompanying briefing path shows inflation averaging -0.54% in 1Q26 and +2.70% in 2Q26, before easing to a projected +2.09% in 3Q26 and +2.33% in 4Q26." "The forecast assumes GDP growth of 1.5%–2.5%, Dubai crude averaging USD80–90/bbl, and USD/THB averaging 32.0–33.0. The critical threshold for reassessment is therefore not another volatile headline print, but a sustained broadening into wage setting, market-based services prices, inflation expectations, FX pass-through, and stronger credit creation."