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Indonesia: Headline GDP strength, mixed momentum – Societe Generale
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Public spending was the main support, while non-government GDP, private consumption and manufacturing stayed weak.
Investment improved but boosted imports, and a large statistical discrepancy clouds assessment of Indonesia’s growth quality.
"As a result, non-government GDP growth continued to languish, reinforcing the view that underlying economic momentum remains softer than the headline print suggests."
"This matters because growth led by public spending is qualitatively different from growth driven by private demand."
"This weakens the case for interpreting the GDP data as evidence of a strong consumer-led recovery."