ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song warn that upside inflation risks are re-emerging for the Philippine Peso (PHP), driven by recovering Oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño that could spark a food-price shock. El Niño and policy risks pressure PHP"Upside inflation risks are increasing again, driven by the recovery in oil prices and expectations of a strong El Niño later this year which could trigger a food inflation shock across import-dependent economies like the Philippines." "Global rice prices are increasing as countries move to secure supplies, while fertiliser prices are likely to rebound from recent lows amid renewed US-Iran tensions and supply disruption." "Persistent inflation pressures are likely to reinforce a hawkish policy stance, supporting our forecast for an additional 50bp of tightening in 2026." "Political uncertainty remains a key downside risk, potentially delaying reforms, dampening growth, and sustaining downward pressure on the peso."