The capture rate — the ratio of average solar revenue to average wholesale market price — is declining in every market with meaningful solar penetration, at a pace that most project financial models do not adequately reflect. Germany recorded a solar capture price of €47/MWh in 2024, representing a capture rate of 59% — the lowest in Europe — despite still-elevated baseload prices. In 2025, Germany's average solar capture rate fell further to approximately 54%, down from 98% in 2022. In Poland, solar capture factors hit approximately 50% in peak summer months of 2025. The institutional and market structure design decisions made during the current deployment phase will determine whether African solar markets encounter capture rate collapse under crisis conditions or manage the transition through proactive market architecture.