Between 35 and 38 million used vehicles change hands in the U.S. each year, and the six-to-eight-week hidden pipeline dealers run before a single sticker ever gets printed is why a spring surge is already baked into the prices you see this summer

A vehicle’s wholesale price is the amount the dealer paid to buy the car at an auction. Wholesale price changes tend to become retail price changes after six to eight weeks. Dealers then tack on a few thousand dollars to cover their costs and generate a profit, which becomes the retail price. Off-lease EV maturities are increasing, driving EV weighting in the Manheim index to a record 3.9% in March, a level never seen before. Non-adjusted wholesale prices rose 2.7% in January 2026 against December 2025, well above the long-term January average of 0.4%, as tax-refund season ignited early demand.