Chart 1: Strait talk continuesPhoto/SuppliedGeopolitics will continue to command headlines and cloud the outlook, but global growth forecasts, for now, are fine. Chart 2: Global growth on trendPhoto/SuppliedChange is the only constant in a world of almost 10% average weekly changes in oil prices. Chart 3: Keeping the faithPhoto/SuppliedThe signs of life in the domestic data pulse support our view an underlying recovery in NZ’s economy is underway. It is debatable whether the economy contracted or expanded in Q2, but we are confident there is growth in the current (third) quarter. Chart 9: The core issuePhoto/SuppliedThe inflation outlook doesn’t gel with interest rates at highly stimulatory levels.