US-Iran peace talksOil prices have declined following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between Iran and Oman, aimed at facilitating a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran. This development has led to adjustments in prediction markets, which now reflect increased optimism for a diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran by the end of August 2026. AdvertisementKey TakeawaysMarket pricing suggests increased confidence in a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before August 31, 2026, now at 54% YES. The news of Iran-Oman talks appears to have influenced a notable price movement, with a 4-point spike in probabilities. The term structure indicates a strong increase in probability for a diplomatic meeting from mid to late August, consistent with recent developments.