My view is currently along the lines of ... "I'll believe it when I see it." That aside I agree with #2, that Iran and Oman seem to be the parties negotiating the opening of the Strait does speak volumes. The countries in the Gulf region are trying to negotiate to open the Strait that Pres Trump's whimsical war had closed. If the Strait does re-open, I suspect that Pres Trump will try to place himself front and center in the reason it re-opened. His usual "me-me-me-me, it's all about me" refrain.