Michigan Democrats nominated former public health official Abdul El-Sayed over Rep. Haley Stevens in a fiercely-fought primary on Tuesday. “Abdul El-Sayed won 58.4 [percent] of the vote in counties where at least 30 [percent] of adults have a college degree,” Luntz wrote. “Haley Stevens won 51.4 [percent] of the vote in counties where less than 30 [percent] of adults went to college.” In continuation of that narrative of less-than-precise political prognostications, experts argued that El-Sayed might struggle to prevail because of Black voters. “But he is running into resistance among Black voters, many of whom say the establishment he eschews has delivered for them in important ways.”