Polymarket now assigns just a 16% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, a stunning collapse from the 82% peak the contract hit back in February. A bill that bettors once considered nearly a lock has seen its odds fall by more than 80% in roughly five months. What happened to the momentumThe CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. By late July, Polymarket odds had already cratered to the 23-28% range, and they’ve continued sliding to the current 14-16% zone as of early August. At 16% odds, contrarian bettors might see value if they believe a surprise Senate deal could materialize after recess.