US-Iran deal in 2026Iran has issued a warning that Gulf states could face retaliation if the United States launches further military strikes. The threat specifically targets energy infrastructure and underscores the escalating hostilities in the ongoing 2026 Iran war. This development may further complicate diplomatic efforts towards a U.S.-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding. Market pricing indicates participants view this as decreasing the likelihood of Iran reconstruction funding being included in a 2026 U.S.-Iran deal. What to WatchMarkets will be closely monitoring any new military actions by the U.S. or Iran, as these could further influence the likelihood of a deal.