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The Dunning-Kruger effect isn’t what everyone thinks it is: the original 1999 study found bottom-quartile performers overestimated their standing by about 50 percentile points, not that confident people are stupid
['Written By', 'Justin Brown', "Justin Brown Is Silicon Canals' Chief Publisher. He Holds A Master Of Science In Global Economic History The London School Of Economics", 'Erasmus Mundus Joint Master In Global Studies', 'A Master Of Arts In International Relations The Australian National University', 'Where He Was Awarded The Hedley Bull Scholarship', 'Graduated With First Class Honours.', 'His Writing Focuses On Power Structures', 'Institutional Incentives', 'The Gap Between Corporate Narrative']
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That graph does not appear in Kruger and Dunning’s original 1999 paper, and it is not simply a prettier version of their data.
That did not erase the much larger error among bottom-quartile performers, but it did complicate the slogan.
On harder tasks, the best performers could become less accurate about their relative standing than the worst performers.
The original paper never said confident people are dumb.
More than a quarter-century after the original study, the safest conclusion is not that everyone is equally bad at self-assessment.