Yet despite that language…and three members preferring an immediate hike…the FOMC again declined to move. But investors will still want greater clarity over what the Fed will regard as evidence that inflation has returned to 2%. A fixed numerical target attached to a potentially changing measure risks making the reaction function harder to interpret, particularly while inflation remains materially above target. This is the reflexivity at the heart of “market guidance”…the Fed holds because markets have tightened, while markets tighten because the Fed has held. Markets may be able to deliver part of the required tightening, but they will still look to the Fed to anchor the inflation outlook.