Polling trends confirm Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico has topped out Democrat support and still cannot reach a winning margin in the state’s 2026 election. Two recent surveys from Wedgewood Polls and Texas Southern University bear this out. Both polls indicate Talarico has maxed out the Democrat coalition in the state while Attorney General Ken Paxton works to bring traditional Republican voters into his camp. The polls both give Talarico a nominal +2 advantage, 48 percent to 46 percent in Wedgewood and 47 percent to 45 percent in Texas Southern. “Virtually all Democrats (97 percent) intend to vote for Talarico, with 1 percent intending to vote for Paxton and 2 percent undecided.