Ken Paxton, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate in the Texas Senate race, is trailing his Democratic rival in a conservative poll. It’s the third consecutive conservative poll to show Talarico leading Paxton ahead of November’s crucial midterm election. The Texas Senate race is expected to be one of the most closely watched contests of the midterm cycle. James Talarico is hoping to be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Among white likely voters, Paxton holds a 14-point lead over Talarico, 53 percent to 39 percent.