A banner with a picture of U.S. President Donald Trump next to an Iranian missile system at Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran, July 30, 2026. Rather than seeking a decisive military victory, Tehran is pursuing a strategy of calibrated escalation aimed at widening the conflict without triggering full-scale war. By putting multiple maritime chokepoints and energy assets at risk, Iran believes it can strengthen its hand in any future negotiations. “The Iranians…believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, he will eventually give in,” the Gulf source said. As threats have expanded beyond Hormuz, regional and Western powers have increasingly focused on protecting trade routes and energy infrastructure rather than intensifying pressure on Iran.