Half the year has now passed us by, and it is worth asking ourselves where this war is heading! July 2026 marked one of the most significant months of the war since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. While the ground war ground down, the air war hit a new peak. Ukraine hit back with its deepest strike campaign yet. Russian fuel transport slowed, commercial shipping costs jumped, and elite air-defence and drone units had to leave the front to guard maritime routes and the Kerch Strait.