Yet during the first phase of the Iran war from Feb. 28, 2026, to the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on June 17, the Houthi front in Yemen remained relatively quiet. Since July 20, the Houthis have struck at least four oil tankers in the Red Sea. In retaliation, Saudi Arabia has carried out airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen for the first time since the 2022 truce. Vital Saudi oil infrastructure has also come under attack from both the Houthis and from Iranian-aligned groups in Iraq, who may have damaged the crucial processing facility at Abqaiq that acts as the nerve center for Saudi oil. But if shippers and insurers perceive that Egypt’s Mediterranean facilities are not only within Iranian range but also capable of being hit, that raises the prospect of the Red Sea being restricted at both ends.